Thursday, January 3, 2008

Thoughts on Iowa

My prediction that Ron Paul would come in third was not born out, but he didn't miss by much. He garnered a respectable 10%, which, for that kind of candidate to accomplish in a state like Iowa isn't bad and is a good deal better than the mainstream media have ever given him credit for. It was a strong finish within an unfavorable framework and I have to believe that he will break upward by a substantial margin in New Hampshire.

And of course, beating Giuliani so soundly does make one smile.

Thompson and McCain supporters surprised me tonight, I'll admit it. I do not, however, believe for a moment that Fred can go the distance. For one thing, he's out of money and not likely to get much more. Whether he hangs on by his fingernails or throws in the towel tomorrow is of no real import. McCain, also broke, will have his ability to go on determined soon in New Hampshire.

All in all, the Iowa caucus doesn't seem particularly meaningful. The Hucka-Romney duo strikes me as just so much Robertson and Dole.

It's also clear (fourth table) that Iowa GOPers overwhelmingly still bounce to the beat of the Bush drum.

New Hampshire is the real test.


  1. Other than Huckabee and Romney, Ron Paul was the only Republican candidate to win an entire county: Jefferson. And Paul got more votes than Romney in 5 other counties: Osceola, Pocahontas, Van Buren, Mitchell and Davis.

  2. Hopefully Paul can translate all that money into votes in at least a few states. He has been gaining momentum in New Hampshire over the last month, but unless he pulls something out of his behind in the next 3 days, it wont be enough to push past fourth place.

    Good blog