The Republican Party is at war with itself. Never have the differences between its factions been so jarring. On one side are traditional small government conservatives, standard bearers of the Goldwater and Reagan era legacy. On the other side are big government neoconservatives and Jingoists. The battle for the soul of the party has been joined. In some ways it resembles the eve of 1994.
One thing is clear. In order to have even the slightest hope of winning in 2008, the Republican Party must be whole and it must be able to attract some moderate Democrats. But there is only one candidate capable of building that coalition. Right now Ron Paul is bringing together libertarians, traditionalists, independents, and Democrats. Social conservatives are split, with some counting themselves on Paul's side and others drifting—primarily on a current of Islamophobia—into an uneasy alliance with the neocons. There are also those, particularly in the world of punditry, who have painted themselves into a corner with the Iraq War. Having talked for five years in favor of it and defined themselves by their opposition to the opposition, to reverse course now is to risk looking foolish and flirt with damage to credibility and career. So they stubbornly grind it out with one arm clasped around whoever is willing to publicly say that Iraq is looking better this week than last. It will probably take a sudden and obvious catastrophe, rather than a long and steady slide into failure, to give them the cover they need to change their position on the war and save face in the process.
The political instincts of the GOP machine are a question mark. Without Ron Paul the Party will be split and whichever second-rate candidate is put up will be immediately cut off at the knees, not only failing to garner any crossover votes from Democrats and Independents but at the same time finding their support within their own party eviscerated. The traditionalists, or paleoconservatives, and the libertarian-leaning conservatives, jaundiced from eight years of stomach-turning pragmatism and soft socialism dressed up in a sport coat, have reached the point at which they are no longer willing to compromise on ideology. In Paul, traditional conservatives get the purity and return to roots that they hunger for, while independents, undecideds, and many Democrats get their wish for the antithesis of the slick, business-as-usual politician. It's a winning combination, and I'll say it again: it is the ONLY hope for the Republican Party in 2008.
One thing is clear. In order to have even the slightest hope of winning in 2008, the Republican Party must be whole and it must be able to attract some moderate Democrats. But there is only one candidate capable of building that coalition. Right now Ron Paul is bringing together libertarians, traditionalists, independents, and Democrats. Social conservatives are split, with some counting themselves on Paul's side and others drifting—primarily on a current of Islamophobia—into an uneasy alliance with the neocons. There are also those, particularly in the world of punditry, who have painted themselves into a corner with the Iraq War. Having talked for five years in favor of it and defined themselves by their opposition to the opposition, to reverse course now is to risk looking foolish and flirt with damage to credibility and career. So they stubbornly grind it out with one arm clasped around whoever is willing to publicly say that Iraq is looking better this week than last. It will probably take a sudden and obvious catastrophe, rather than a long and steady slide into failure, to give them the cover they need to change their position on the war and save face in the process.
The political instincts of the GOP machine are a question mark. Without Ron Paul the Party will be split and whichever second-rate candidate is put up will be immediately cut off at the knees, not only failing to garner any crossover votes from Democrats and Independents but at the same time finding their support within their own party eviscerated. The traditionalists, or paleoconservatives, and the libertarian-leaning conservatives, jaundiced from eight years of stomach-turning pragmatism and soft socialism dressed up in a sport coat, have reached the point at which they are no longer willing to compromise on ideology. In Paul, traditional conservatives get the purity and return to roots that they hunger for, while independents, undecideds, and many Democrats get their wish for the antithesis of the slick, business-as-usual politician. It's a winning combination, and I'll say it again: it is the ONLY hope for the Republican Party in 2008.
* Postscript:
This morning I ran across this interesting column at TownHall.com. It suggests that GOP strategists are beginning to recognize that the only way to overcome the hostile environment in 2008 is to run what the author calls an "anti-incumbent, anti-Washington, insurgent campaign", with a candidate that can run "against Republicans as a whole, run against Washington as a whole". The column doesn't mention Paul (and it suggests the public mood is turning positive on Iraq, which is laughable), but if the upshot is true, it may be a sign of an important shift in thinking among the party apparatchiks and electioneers, which could work in Paul's favor. Sooner or later they will have to realize that they need a broad coalition—a bigger one this time than at any time before, thanks to the atrocious knavery and turpitude of George W. Bush—that includes as many independents and fence-sitting swing voters as are out there. Only one person can deliver that, as I noted previously here and here.
1 comments:
Having talked for five years in favor of it and defined themselves by their opposition to the opposition, to reverse course now is to risk looking foolish and flirt with damage to credibility and career.
I feel exactly the same. If you listen to Hannity, Limbaugh, et. al., you'll never hear how thrilled they are with the current crop of top-tier candidates--except in aggregate as opposed to the Democrat candidates.
Good post.
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